The All-Ukrainian Congress of Farmers conducted a webinar supported by MERCY CORPS, dedicated to the most profitable crops for the upcoming year. VCF Chairman Ivan Slobodyannik spoke with experts β Doctor of Economic Sciences Dmytro Lyudvenko (NSC “Institute of Agrarian Economics” NAAS) and Doctor of Agricultural Sciences, Academician of NAAS Vladyslav Cherchel (Acting Director of the Institute of Grain Crops NAAS).
Π§ΠΈΡΠ°ΠΉ Π½Π°Ρ ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΎΠΆ Ρ Viber ΡΠ° Telegram.
The scientists explained why profitability is more important than gross yields, which crops show the best results in different regions of Ukraine, how climate change is forcing farmers to reconsider their crop structure, and why western regions have become the new leaders in yields. Special attention was paid to strategies for the arid south, prospects for niche crops, and the potential of seed production as the most profitable direction for small farms.
About Declining Profitability
π· We very often hear about millions of tons threshed, hectares sown β such inertia from Soviet times. But the farmer has two problems: when there’s no harvest and when there’s too much harvest. How important is the shift from quantity to profitability? Does science analyze this profitability?
Vladyslav Cherchel: If we compare over the last 30 years, profitability has dropped from hundreds of percent to tens, and it’s constantly decreasing. The more harvest we collect, the lower the profitability, as a rule, because the costs for this yield are growing.
Our cultivation technology has greatly improved, but it has become more expensive. Over the last 15 years, costs have increased significantly β these are costs for seeds, especially for fertilizers. Since 2018, there’s been a collapse in fertilizer prices β they grew from 8-10 thousand per ton to 20-30 and more. Fertilizers have become a significant component. Plus plant protection products, which are almost all imported and very expensive, plus logistics.
π· So your observation is that farmers are earning less each year?
Vladyslav Cherchel: Large corporations are earning less. Farmers can, in principle, even increase their earnings because they don’t invest as much as large agroholdings do.
π· And if we compare with EU countries β we use an order of magnitude less fertilizer than Germany or France. Can we afford this?
Vladyslav Cherchel: Yes, because our conditions are completely different. In Europe, soil fertility is significantly lower than in Ukraine. We’re so lucky that natural conditions allow us to use less fertilizer. But we must also consider the organic matter that remains in the field β this can also conditionally be called fertilizer.
π· And if we reach Germany’s level, will we increase yields?
Vladyslav Cherchel: There’s no such need. This will primarily affect not even the yield, but the quality of production.
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Allow me to give an example. We studied the profit from one centner of wheat. Farmers have a profit of about 150 hryvnias per centner, enterprises β 90 hryvnias. But the farmer’s yield is 30 c/ha, and the enterprise’s β 50 c/ha. Profit per hectare is the same β 4,500 hryvnias. But profitability for the farmer is 31.4%, and for the enterprise 15.9%.
π· What’s the secret?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: The farmer has lower costs. He can manage, he sees his budget, how much he can or cannot invest. Mainly plant protection products suffer, he doesn’t apply some fertilizers, accordingly the yield is lower. Enterprises can afford more, the yield is higher, but costs are growing.
About Climate Change and Crop Migration
π· You touched on climate change. How much do you see changes in production structure and migration of certain crops regionally?
Vladyslav Cherchel: The structure has changed a lot over about 20 years due to climate change. If in the 80s sunflower was mainly sown only in southern Ukraine, now sunflower is sown everywhere. And this is our problem β so much sunflower leads to increased drought phenomena, because the restoration of water balance in the soil occurs only in the fourth-fifth year after sunflower.
And in the south, where there’s already not enough moisture, they sow the most sunflower. Sunflower has already become a normal predecessor for winter wheat. And this is a problem because we’re losing profit. After sunflower, we lose at least half the yield of winter wheat.
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Fifth cold spring in a row. Generally, the climate is changing strangely somehow. Over 30 years, the temperature has increased by 2 degrees. Zones are moving.
Vladyslav Cherchel: I wouldn’t say that about changing climatic zones. Climatic zones are not only temperature and precipitation, it’s also soils. For soils to change, hundreds of years are needed. Climate is changing, but zones are not only weather conditions.
π· We see anomalous drought in the south. Soil temperature reaches almost 40 degrees, almost nothing grows. The central part β Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk regions β can already be called zones of risky agriculture. What’s your forecast β is this a guaranteed stable transition to another climatic zone or a temporary phenomenon?
Vladyslav Cherchel: The drought in Kherson, Mykolaiv, part of Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk regions has lasted for the second year in a row. I believe this is a problem due to the disappearance of the Kakhovka Reservoir β it was a large mirror that created its own microclimate in the region.
What’s interesting β this year, despite the drought in the south and east, the North and Western Ukraine demonstrated colossal high yields. Some farms received 9-10 tons of winter wheat per hectare. These are record yields.
π· What should farmers in the south do? Pull irrigation at any cost?
Vladyslav Cherchel: You can’t irrigate this, that’s 100%. The fact is, we don’t have that much water. Even if you drill wells and take underground sources, not every water can be used for irrigation. And you can only irrigate where water is nearby. If Ukraine ever makes at least 10% irrigated somewhere, that will be very good. Today we’re only losing so far.
π· And what are the recommendations?
Vladyslav Cherchel: This year, Dnipropetrovsk region sowed a record amount of sunflower β 866 thousand hectares, practically half of all crops. And what did they get? They didn’t even get a ton per hectare. We warned at the beginning of spring: if you came out of winter and in the meter layer there’s less than 160 mm of moisture β forget about late spring crops. They won’t give a harvest.
We need to focus on winter crops β winter wheat, winter barley. We’ve practically stopped having winter crops freeze out, for 20 years now winter barley hasn’t dropped out. Then early spring crops β even if there’s a minimum amount of moisture, peas and spring barley will form a harvest. Oilseed flax also doesn’t require much moisture.
About Yield Leaders
π· If we summarize the grain part, can we look retrospectively at the profitability of grain crops?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: I have profitability data for small farming operations β for grain and oilseed crops. If we look at 2024, corn for grain showed the highest profitability. For oilseeds, the leaders are rapeseed and soybean; sunflower is no longer the leader.
π· And which regions are leaders in yields? By crops?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Look at corn. So far 14% has been harvested, average yield is 70 c/ha. The highest yield is 105 c/ha, and that’s Khmelnytskyi region.
Vladyslav Cherchel: Well, that’s not the best harvest. They’ve received 110-120 c/ha.
π· And what other regions follow?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Ternopil β 97 c/ha, Chernivtsi region. Practically Western Ukraine. Western Ukraine is always more productive.
π· Which region is the leader for sunflower?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Sunflower has been harvested 93%, average yield is 18.9 c/ha. The highest is 30.2 c/ha. The same Khmelnytskyi region. Chernihiv β 29 c/ha.
π· For soybeans?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Soybeans are almost all harvested β 98%. The highest yield is 30.8 c/ha. Lviv region. Khmelnytskyi β 30.2 c/ha, Kyiv β 33.2 c/ha.
π· And the last one β rapeseed?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Rapeseed has been completely harvested β 26.3 c/ha average. The highest is 35.3 c/ha, and that’s also Lviv region. Khmelnytskyi β 31 c/ha, Chernivtsi β 34 c/ha.
π· So we see transformation, a shift to the western region. How relevant will this be for the coming years?
Vladyslav Cherchel: Probably will be relevant. This growth in yield may be related to the fact that regions that were pulling down have dropped out. And now yields are growing at the expense of western and northern regions.
Sunflower Losing Position
π· But we’ve identified yield leaders, where’s the profitability? Because it’s not a fact that yield gives such profitability. Can we return to the question of profitability by leaders?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: First of all, we want to show what the farmer can count on. We only look at profitability, not at yield, not at gross volume.
π· And in a regional context?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: We can’t guess what will be tomorrow. We see droughts, frosts. Plus the force majeure circumstance β military actions. The farmer is even afraid to go into the field because at any moment something can hit. But still, according to trends, we see that before the war there was growth, the war interrupted this growth, and then gradual increase. We’re recovering, our farming has chances.
π· Returning to profitability by crops?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Yes, if we look at the 25th year β this is a calculated variant. For grain and legume crops, the main leader is corn for grain with profitability of 36.8%.
Vladyslav Cherchel: But this year, in the 25th, it won’t be so profitable. Why? Because practically all corn where there is a harvest, it’s all wet. Terrible moisture β 35% and higher. Processing will be costly.
Dmytro Lyudvenko: For oilseeds, technical and others β rapeseed, sunflower seeds and soybeans. This is the top four in profitability.
π· And profit structure β what does that mean?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Profit structure shows where the farmer gets money from. The main position β more than 30% β is sunflower. But this is gross income.
π· And profit β is this after paying all taxes?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Yes, profit is the difference between income and costs after all payments.
Vladyslav Cherchel: Sunflower is still playing out, but only in those zones where you can get at least 2-2.5 t/ha. Simple math: got 2 tons β that’s already 50 thousand hryvnias per hectare. But I hope that other oilseed crops will slightly beat sunflower. It’s impossible to sow as much sunflower as they sow now, especially in the south.
About Promising Crops
π· What are some good predecessors that need to be implemented?
Vladyslav Cherchel: For example, peas β as a predecessor, they approach the properties of fallow. And you can sow not only winter wheat. Any crop after peas will give significantly better profit. It’s clear that peas won’t give such returns as another crop, but the field isn’t idle.
A good predecessor recently is oilseed flax. I believe it needs to be spread and developed in Ukraine. And it’s a decent profitable crop.
π· And rapeseed?
Vladyslav Cherchel: Rapeseed is a very good crop, and it’s recently started to grow. The yield of this crop has grown a lot and significantly exceeds sunflower today. Rapeseed is more profitable to grow than sunflower. But it’s a dangerous crop. Why? First, it’s sown very early, when there’s no moisture. And not every year can you sow a sufficient amount of rapeseed. But in recent years, yields have grown a lot.
And winter wheat, winter barley β we’ve practically stopped having winter crops freeze out. Barley used to freeze out once every three years. For 20 years now, winter barley hasn’t been observed to drop out. So winter barley and winter wheat are the main crops that southern and eastern regions, where there’s drought now, need to pay attention to.
Dmytro Lyudvenko: I’d like to add that indeed the farmer, what to grow, if he has a contract, everyone will proceed from what they order. Especially for niche crops. While they’re niche, no one will risk. They’ll only grow to order.
Second β if he has little land, they should unite, it will be easier for them to find appropriate sales and minimize logistics costs.
Vladyslav Cherchel: I’d like to say about where a farmer can earn β it’s seed production. Seed production of any crop is better than just trading grain. But it requires a completely different approach, attention, professionalism, system of machinery, processing must be done.
π· Can you give an example?
Vladyslav Cherchel: Look, if a farmer grows sunflower and gets 50-60 thousand hryvnias per hectare. If on the same area he grows corn seeds and gets a minimum of 120 seed units, and sells at 2,000 per seed unit β that’s 240 thousand per hectare. What crop can cover that?
π· And what other regions follow?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Ternopil β 97 c/ha, Chernivtsi region. Practically Western Ukraine. Western Ukraine is always more productive.
π· Which region is the leader for sunflower?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Sunflower has been harvested 93%, average yield is 18.9 c/ha. The highest is 30.2 c/ha. The same Khmelnytskyi region. Chernihiv β 29 c/ha.
π· For soybeans?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Soybeans are almost all harvested β 98%. The highest yield is 30.8 c/ha. Lviv region. Khmelnytskyi β 30.2 c/ha, Kyiv β 33.2 c/ha.
π· And the last one β rapeseed?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Rapeseed has been completely harvested β 26.3 c/ha average. The highest is 35.3 c/ha, and that’s also Lviv region. Khmelnytskyi β 31 c/ha, Chernivtsi β 34 c/ha.
π· So we see transformation, a shift to the western region. How relevant will this be for the coming years?
Vladyslav Cherchel: Probably will be relevant. This growth in yield may be related to the fact that regions that were pulling down have dropped out. And now yields are growing at the expense of western and northern regions.
Sunflower Losing Position
π· But we’ve identified yield leaders, where’s the profitability? Because it’s not a fact that yield gives such profitability. Can we return to the question of profitability by leaders?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: First of all, we want to show what the farmer can count on. We only look at profitability, not at yield, not at gross volume.
π· And in a regional context?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: We can’t guess what will be tomorrow. We see droughts, frosts. Plus the force majeure circumstance β military actions. The farmer is even afraid to go into the field because at any moment something can hit. But still, according to trends, we see that before the war there was growth, the war interrupted this growth, and then gradual increase. We’re recovering, our farming has chances.
π· Returning to profitability by crops?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Yes, if we look at the 25th year β this is a calculated variant. For grain and legume crops, the main leader is corn for grain with profitability of 36.8%.
Vladyslav Cherchel: But this year, in the 25th, it won’t be so profitable. Why? Because practically all corn where there is a harvest, it’s all wet. Terrible moisture β 35% and higher. Processing will be costly.
Dmytro Lyudvenko: For oilseeds, technical and others β rapeseed, sunflower seeds and soybeans. This is the top four in profitability.
π· And profit structure β what does that mean?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Profit structure shows where the farmer gets money from. The main position β more than 30% β is sunflower. But this is gross income.
π· And profit β is this after paying all taxes?
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Yes, profit is the difference between income and costs after all payments.
Vladyslav Cherchel: Sunflower is still playing out, but only in those zones where you can get at least 2-2.5 t/ha. Simple math: got 2 tons β that’s already 50 thousand hryvnias per hectare. But I hope that other oilseed crops will slightly beat sunflower. It’s impossible to sow as much sunflower as they sow now, especially in the south.
About Promising Crops
π· What are some good predecessors that need to be implemented?
Vladyslav Cherchel: For example, peas β as a predecessor, they approach the properties of fallow. And you can sow not only winter wheat. Any crop after peas will give significantly better profit. It’s clear that peas won’t give such returns as another crop, but the field isn’t idle.
A good predecessor recently is oilseed flax. I believe it needs to be spread and developed in Ukraine. And it’s a decent profitable crop.
π· And rapeseed?
Vladyslav Cherchel: Rapeseed is a very good crop, and it’s recently started to grow. The yield of this crop has grown a lot and significantly exceeds sunflower today. Rapeseed is more profitable to grow than sunflower. But it’s a dangerous crop. Why? First, it’s sown very early, when there’s no moisture. And not every year can you sow a sufficient amount of rapeseed. But in recent years, yields have grown a lot.
And winter wheat, winter barley β we’ve practically stopped having winter crops freeze out. Barley used to freeze out once every three years. For 20 years now, winter barley hasn’t been observed to drop out. So winter barley and winter wheat are the main crops that southern and eastern regions, where there’s drought now, need to pay attention to.
Dmytro Lyudvenko: I’d like to add that indeed the farmer, what to grow, if he has a contract, everyone will proceed from what they order. Especially for niche crops. While they’re niche, no one will risk. They’ll only grow to order.
Second β if he has little land, they should unite, it will be easier for them to find appropriate sales and minimize logistics costs.
Vladyslav Cherchel: I’d like to say about where a farmer can earn β it’s seed production. Seed production of any crop is better than just trading grain. But it requires a completely different approach, attention, professionalism, system of machinery, processing must be done.
π· Can you give an example?
Vladyslav Cherchel: Look, if a farmer grows sunflower and gets 50-60 thousand hryvnias per hectare. If on the same area he grows corn seeds and gets a minimum of 120 seed units, and sells at 2,000 per seed unit β that’s 240 thousand per hectare. What crop can cover that? None can. Even if he gives half for seed processing, 120 thousand remains. This is very profitable.
But you need to go into legal seed production, because recently something strange is happening β a mass of seeds without licensed cultivation, without certified cultivation. No one wants to pay royalties, doesn’t want to pay for certification. But I believe that in seed production, farmers, especially those with small areas, can find decent profit. This is better than sunflower.
About New Crops
π· Maybe consider alternatives β move into vegetable growing, greenhouse farming, energy crops, niche things?
Vladyslav Cherchel: I said at the beginning that the structure won’t change much because this requires many aspects. First β demand in external and internal markets. For a farmer to switch to some crop, he must understand where he’ll sell this crop. I’ll say more β farmers grow niche crops for some order. If there’s no order, no one will risk.
Then β absence of intervals in demand. We can trade corn, wheat, barley all year round. And niche crops only by contracts that form the price in advance, or when the farmer falls into some window of opportunity.
Further β favorable price conditions, availability of processing infrastructure, convenience of logistics, availability of processing capacities in the country, availability of seed material.
π· Can you give an example?
Vladyslav Cherchel: Well, for example, even in Kyiv region this year they sowed mung bean β it’s such a grain crop. But the crop isn’t registered, there’s no variety. This was unlicensed cultivation. Secondly, there are no seeds. Maybe it can be grown, but there aren’t any.
Another example β in the 80s in the south in Kherson region they grew cotton. Now there was a lot of noise that it needs to be grown. We know, we even had varieties, and they’re still preserved. Maybe they’re not in the register, but these varieties exist in Ukraine. But it’s a very complex crop. We have nothing β no processing enterprises, no machinery system for these crops. This is a very costly cultivation technology.
π· What about sorghum?
Vladyslav Cherchel: There was a lot of noise about sorghum as a promising crop. A processing plant for 10 thousand tons was even built, and it wasn’t used. There was no surge in production of this crop and there never will be, because it’s selection-based, not developed at a sufficient level.
π· And lentils?
Vladyslav Cherchel: Lentils are one of the legume crops that recently attracted attention. In 2024, there were 17 thousand hectares. Never before has so much lentil been sown in Ukraine. I think this is a crop that will continue to develop. We now have seeds of this crop and our own breeding, six varieties are registered.
π· Does this require specialized equipment?
Vladyslav Cherchel: No, it’s normal. Lentils can be harvested with any combine. The main thing is that they grow tall enough, because it’s such a low-growing crop. It’s not very productive β yield is about a ton, but in the 24th year the average yield in Ukraine was 1.5 t/ha. Yields started to grow, I think 2-2.5 tons of lentils can be harvested.
π· And the price?
Vladyslav Cherchel: Price from 30 to 60 thousand per ton. This crop is more not for southern regions, but more for forest-steppe. Very interesting crop. It can partially replace even peas. Peas aren’t liked for cultivation because their price offering fluctuates a lot β it can be both very high and very low, depends on external markets. Lentils are more stable. The market for this crop is not saturated, because the country is import-oriented for lentils. I think this is our future.
About Soil Cultivation Technologies
π· What does Ukrainian science say about strip-till or no-till? Because practitioners say one thingβ¦
Vladyslav Cherchel: Very difficult question. Where they’re common, significantly more precipitation falls. Everything contributes to transitioning to these technologies that allow preserving moisture in the soil. But this is more about anti-erosion agriculture.
Soil compaction still occurs because equipment still drives through fields. I believe that no-till and strip-till have their negative and positive aspects, and it’s the preference of each farmer individually.
For each crop there can be its own soil cultivation. For early crops or for winter crops, you can use no-till or direct seeding. And for late crops β sunflower, corn β plowing is still needed if we want to get a normal result. This is especially for the south.
Where there’s enough moisture β Kyiv region, Vinnytsia, western regions β you can use it. I believe this is a decent farming system that preserves soil from various types of erosion.
About Pests
π· Are any new pests appearing in connection with temperature changes that cause more problems?
Vladyslav Cherchel: There are no significant shifts. For corn recently, diabrotica causes a lot of problems. It’s not yet fully spread throughout Ukraine, but it’s already in Poltava region. In the 90s it appeared in Europe, first was in Western Ukraine, and has already reached Poltava region. But this pest is quite easy to fight β if you don’t sow corn as a monoculture, then it’s not dangerous.
Strangely, we have such pests appearing that previously were found in greenhouse farming. Mites were the main pest in greenhouses, whitefly too. And now they, probably the climatic conditions have changed so much, that they’re coming out into the field. And it’s not so easy to fight them.
First of all, crop rotation must be maintained. If farmers, agrarians make at least short-rotation crop rotations for five-six crops, then this can be prevented by agrotechnical means.
How the Academy of Sciences Can Be Useful to Farmers
π· Taking the opportunity, how can the Academy of Sciences be useful? Which institutes, departments, where to find this information, what services could be useful to agrarians?
Vladyslav Cherchel: If we’re talking about our institution, about the Institute of Grain Crops, we very actively cooperate with farmers, we work very actively not only in seed production but also in technological support. All information is on our website β scientific developments. We also implement educational activities, invite to graduate school.
We have our Facebook page. We constantly post various news, including about our institution’s activities. There’s a YouTube channel β there’s also very useful information there.
π· What kind of information?
Vladyslav Cherchel: It’s various information β about the life of our institution, what’s happening with us, our defenses, various interviews with our staff, events we implement in the field. We annually conduct at least two field days β on early grains and on corn.
Our institution is better known as the Corn Institute. Today we implement seed production. Even before the war, we had over 6 thousand hybridization plots for our hybrids. It decreased a bit, considering that the main regions that grew seeds, military actions are happening there. But we’re already recovering and again expanding the network of our partners, including in Western Ukraine.
I believe that our corn hybrids are no worse than foreign ones, and in some situations may even be better, considering that they were created here in Ukraine and adapted to these conditions, to stressful ones, to drought. Many producers have already tried our product and consider it quality.
π· Who are your partners?
Vladyslav Cherchel: We have many partners. Such large companies as Rostagro β in good years they sowed over 2 thousand hybridization plots of our hybrids. We have partnerships with Cherkasy company Maes. Also Perlyna Podillya. In our portfolio today there are about 40 partners in different points of Ukraine who grow our seeds. Before the war it reached a hundred.
We actively work both in seed production and genetics. We even implement such a scientific service as testing. Many companies turn to our institute to test their breeding developments. We have a breeding seeder, breeding combine, two laboratories that both collect and immediately process data. Such services can be ordered.
The main source of income for us is still seed production. It reaches about 50%. This is seed sales, parental components of corn hybrids, seed production of winter crops β barley, winter wheat and spring barley.
We’ve also been actively introducing lentils to the market recently. Today there are seeds of this crop and our own breeding, six varieties are registered.
Ivan Slobodyannik: Thank you, colleagues. We’ve identified leaders by crops β everyone will determine for themselves depending on the region. Thank you for the conversation.
Vladyslav Cherchel: We invite cooperation. We’re open to partnership.
Dmytro Lyudvenko: Our farming has chances, it’s recovering and has a future.
Material prepared based on the results of a webinar by the All-Ukrainian Congress of Farmers supported by MERCY CORPS. Participants in the conversation: Ivan Slobodyannik (Chairman of the All-Ukrainian Congress of Farmers), Dmytro Lyudvenko (Doctor of Economic Sciences, Senior Research Fellow at NSC “Institute of Agrarian Economics” NAAS), Vladyslav Cherchel (Doctor of Agricultural Sciences, Professor, Academician of NAAS, Acting Director of the State Institution Institute of Grain Crops NAAS).