Turkey has been one of the key buyers of Ukrainian barley until recently. However, the situation may change drastically in the new marketing year as Ankara plans to reduce the import of the crop by almost 90%, according to agronews.ua.
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For Ukrainian farmers, this is a troubling sign. The Turkish market has been one of the most stable export destinations for many years, so a sharp drop in demand will inevitably affect prices and competition among sellers.
The main factor behind the decrease in purchases is the sharp increase in domestic barley production. Turkish farmers have had a good harvest, and the country’s government has been actively investing in the development of the agricultural sector and food security in recent years.
As a result, Turkey is becoming less dependent on imported grain and can meet a significant part of its needs through domestic production.
For Ukrainian suppliers, this means losing one of the largest clients.
The market reacted instantly, with traders reporting pressure on prices from last year’s harvest, as they now need to find new buyers for the volumes that traditionally went to Turkey.
For farmers, this means the risk of reduced profitability, especially against the backdrop of complex logistics and the unstable situation in global agricultural markets.
Despite losing the Turkish market, analysts do not speak of a catastrophe. The global barley market remains quite diversified. Ukrainian grain is purchased by countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia. Therefore, the main task for exporters now is to quickly redirect supplies to alternative markets.
While war and logistics were the main challenges for Ukrainian grain in the past, competition from countries increasing their own production now plays a significant role.