According to AHDB data, average pork prices in the EU have sharply dropped due to ongoing disease outbreaks and reduced demand, agronews.ua reports.
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Significant pressure on pork prices in the EU persists as the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in Spain accelerates the existing downward trend. The reference price for class S pigs in the EU has been falling since June and, for the week ending January 11, stood at 132.68 pence/kg equivalent, the lowest level since March 2022. Just since the beginning of November, this indicator has decreased by 23.14 pence/kg.
Prices have particularly plummeted in Spain. Prior to the ASF announcement on November 27, average prices were 155.30 pence/kg (week ending November 23), but dropped to 117.57 pence/kg for the week ending January 11, a decrease of 37.73 pence/kg in just six weeks.
As a result, the price gap between the UK and the EU has significantly widened. For the week ending January 11, the difference was 65.46 pence/kg, the highest level in over a decade.
The sustained decline in pork prices in the EU is pushing the UK market. The widening price gap increases the risk of substitution as EU pork becomes more competitive in price. Recent origin data for November shows that UK retail sales remained relatively stable, but the key observation will be how the next data reflects the market.
Pork production in the EU from January to October totaled 18.2 million tonnes, 4% higher than the same period last year, thanks to higher slaughter levels and heavier carcass weights.
The growth was largely driven by Spain (+7%; +269,900 tonnes). Among other key producing countries that showed significant production growth were Poland (5%, +83,000 tonnes), Denmark (6%, +70,000 tonnes), and Italy (4%, +45,900 tonnes).
Pork exports from the EU amounted to 3.7 million tonnes (January-November), 3% higher (96,600 tonnes).
Exports to China during this period totaled 998,000 tonnes, 5% (51,000 tonnes) less than the previous year, due to reduced shipments of fresh/frozen pork. Exports of by-products remained low, decreasing by 11% in November compared to the same period last year, likely due to anti-dumping duties, despite some recovery compared to the previous month.
Exports to Japan decreased by 17% (49,900 tonnes) year-on-year (January-November), while exports to Vietnam increased by 21% (23,200 tonnes) year-on-year, likely reflecting a reduction in domestic supplies due to diseases.
Pork imports into the EU amounted to 121,900 tonnes (January-November), 2.8% (3,500 tonnes) less than the previous year. The UK remained the largest supplier, with 93,800 tonnes.
Imports from Switzerland and Chile decreased by 20% (-1,990 tonnes) and 40% (-5,300 tonnes) respectively.
ASF will remain a key risk for EU pork markets. Spain’s swift response to the recent outbreak, including strict regionalization and movement controls, appears to have limited broader disruptions.
Spain’s experience underscores the need for the UK to remain constantly vigilant. Expanding regionalization agreements with trading partners will be crucial to support trade in the event of a disease outbreak. Current industry initiatives, including AHDB biosecurity webinars, play a vital role in raising awareness and reducing disease risks throughout the supply chain.
On December 17, 2025, China confirmed its final anti-dumping duties. Lower rates improve the EU’s competitiveness in China (and therefore in the UK), but structural risks remain for EU producers, especially for fifth-quarter production with limited alternative markets. The impact of tariff reductions has not yet been fully reflected in the available data, and any significant changes in trade flows are unlikely to be understood until more up-to-date data is published.
It is expected that pork prices in the EU will remain under pressure in the near future due to increased supplies, reduced demand, and ongoing uncertainty regarding diseases and trade developments.