In the 2025/26 marketing year, the deficit of rye in Ukraine will reach 100%, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of rye bread. This was stated by the director of the Association “Flour Millers of Ukraine” Rodion Rybchynsky, as reported by Interfax-Ukraine.
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“It can be stated with certainty that there will be a 100% deficit in rye in the 2025/26 season. Currently, partially processed Polish rye is already being used in Ukraine, and bakeries are using Baltic rye flour,” he said.
According to the head of the industry association, the reason for the rye deficit is the reluctance of agricultural producers to sow this crop, as its yield is one-third lower than that of wheat – 40 tons/ha compared to 60 tons/ha, respectively.
Moreover, previously the entire deficit was covered by imports from Belarus, which led to a reduction in rye production volumes in Ukraine – it was difficult for farmers to compete with supplies from Belarus.
At the same time, rye is not among the popular export crops. The demand for rye is only on the domestic market.
Rybchynsky drew attention to the fact that currently the price of rye is higher than competitive: if in 2024 one ton of rye cost 6-7 thousand UAH, then as of May 2025 – 12-14 thousand UAH.
Responding to the question of whether the rye deficit will lead to an increase in the price of rye bread, the expert emphasized that it will definitely rise.
“At present, the price of Ukrainian rye flour is 18 thousand UAH per ton, from imported raw materials – about 20 thousand UAH, while last year in May rye flour cost 10 thousand UAH. It will not just be an increase in the price of rye bread – many bread and bakery product manufacturers will simply stop baking it,” he emphasized.
The head of the Association “Flour Millers of Ukraine” predicts that in the 2025/26 marketing year, Ukraine will experience a rye deficit and will buy it on external markets at European prices.