Due to weather risks, wheat producers may face serious problems affecting production volumes. This was reported by analysts of the agricultural cooperative PUSK.
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Ukrainian traders are already reacting to risks – export rates have slowed down.
“As of April 28, wheat exports amounted to about 700 thousand tons, although the plan was to ship no less than 1 million tons. Some purchases from Turkey and Egypt for May-June do not compensate for the overall decline in market activity,” noted PUSK.
At the same time, analysts believe that weather risks may have a positive impact on prices. Exporters are already holding prices for both old and new crops, despite low price activity from European buyers.
It is expected that in May, the price of third-class wheat may rise to $240-245 per ton, and considering further risks – even more.
“The forecast model for December-February shows the potential for conditional prices to rise to $250-260 per ton CPT port. With limited supply and active demand, competition for the first batches of new crop wheat may be significant, pushing the market up. Thus, spring weather instability may become the main driver of price dynamics in the Ukrainian and global wheat markets in the coming months,” summarized PUSK.